Understanding Climate Change

"Today, we are faced globally with a new crisis: the changing environment and the changing climate. It’s a frightening situation that will affect everyone but will hurt the poor and the weak far more than the wealthy and the strong. ...we cannot pretend that it will not affect us. It already has."
Wilfred J. Wilkinson, President, Rotary International
Rotarian Magazine, April 2008

Climate stewardship is a natural responsibility for Rotarians. It meets our Four-Way Test for responsible service, and has direct implications for our ongoing humanitarian commitments to disaster relief, peace and security and, especially, clean water for poor communities worldwide.

Our leadership in business and community, our connections with Rotarians worldwide, and our tradition of service above self give Rotarians a unique power to help our society minimize and adapt to climate change. See below for ideas and resources to help you and your Rotary club do more.

Rotarians have learned to apply the tests of Truth, Fairness, Goodwill and Benefit for All to any project we undertake. Climate action meets each of these four tests:

• Is it the truth?

The world's leading scientists, including the national science academies of the United States and 18 other countries, have testified to the reality and urgency of human-caused climate change. The scientific consensus is nearly unanimous and supported by many independent lines of evidence.

• Is it fair?

Climate change is profoundly an issue of fairness. It is caused mainly by the burning of fossil fuels in the wealthiest countries, especially the United States, and in the rapidly growing economies of China and other middle-income countries. Yet, it will hurt most the poorest of the poor [1], who lack the resources to adjust and who live in the areas most affected by the increased drought, flooding, and water-borne disease that come with a warmer climate [2]. Even in America, Hurricane Katrina showed us how natural disasters can fall most heavily on the poor. We cannot attribute any one storm to climate change, any more than we can attribute any one person's heart attack to our national epidemic of obesity. Nevertheless, warmer oceans are expected to increase the intensity of tropical storms [3]. Katrina is, therefore, an example of the kind of disaster that is likely to become more common with global warming. It is an image of how the world's poor will pay for the lifestyles of the wealthy.

• Does it promote goodwill?

Fair solutions to climate change are essential to international goodwill. Climate change, and how to share the responsibility for minimizing it, are already the subjects of rancorous disputes among Europe, the United States, China and developing nations.

Climate change may already have exacerbated the drought and famine that fuel the violence in Darfur [4]. Two other climate-change effects, sea level rise and increased seasonal flooding, have driven refugees from Bangladesh into Northeast India, sparking an often-violent conflict with the Assamese already living there [5].

Further warming is likely to bring wars over water, instability due to hunger and disease, and social conflict due to the movement of millions of climate refugees [6-8]. Such problems are likely in many regions that already have ongoing conflicts, including North Africa, the Sahel, Southern Africa, South Asia, Central Asia, the Caribbean and the Amazon. Climate change is a threat to our own national security, according to a recent report by eleven retired admirals and generals including former U.S. Army Chief of Staff Gordon Sullivan and former Commander of the U.S. Central Command Anthony Zinni [6]. As the United Nations Environment Program puts it, "Combating climate change will be a central peace policy of the 21st century." [7]

• Is it beneficial for all concerned?

Climate change affects all of us. By working together to curb greenhouse gas emissions, we can build a strong, sustainable economy. We can preserve our water and food supplies, our public health, the political stability of our world, and the richness of nature. Our actions in the next twenty to fifty years will determine whether our children live in a rich world or a permanently impoverished one.

A warmer climate will likely be a more volatile climate, with more drought, more flooding and more intense tropical storms [1-3]. Increased drought and climate variability will likely cause more hunger in countries that are already hungry [9]. These disasters could create as many as 150 million climate refugees by 2050 [8]. Rotarians have long been leaders in providing relief to those afflicted by natural disasters. Global warming makes the need for that leadership even greater.

As discussed above, drought, flooding and famine are contributing to conflict in many parts of the world today. As global warming magnifies these problems, it will likely make our work for peace and security even more important and more challenging.

One of Rotary's most important commitments, and perhaps the one most profoundly affected by climate change, is providing clean water and sanitation for poor communities worldwide.

Water is essential to human life, yet many people take the gift of safe water for granted. Today, 1.1 billion people—nearly one fifth of the world's population—lack access to safe, clean drinking water, and 2.6 billion people lack access to basic sanitation. Preventable waterborne diseases kill nearly 6,000 people each day, most of them children less than five years old [10].

This world water crisis is getting worse as populations grow and migrate, irrigation expands, pollution makes more water unusable, and instability and bad governance continue to prevent the fair and efficient distribution of water [11]. The United Nations estimates that, by mid-century, two to seven billion people may face water scarcity, with less than one thousand cubic meters of usable, replenishable water supply per person per year [12].

In response, Rotary clubs have sponsored more than 6000 clean water projects in scores of countries, including deep wells in the Sudan, water pumps in Southern Africa, household rainwater harvesting in Kenya, and a sustainable water system for about one million people in more than 600 villages in India [13].

Climate change is making this work more important, and its goals more difficult to achieve. Global warming affects water supplies and water quality in complex ways. Overall, there is more rain, because a warm atmosphere carries more water vapor. Yet, higher temperatures make the soil dry out faster. The warming also strengthens the great circulation patterns that bring rain to high and low latitudes, and take it away from latitudes in between. Some areas, such as Northern Europe, the American Northeast and parts of East and Southeast Asia, will likely have more rain in a warmer world. However, some of the world's poorest regions, including subtropical parts of Northern Africa, Southern Africa and South Asia, may suffer even more drought than they do today [14].

Parts of Africa, Europe, Asia and Latin America can also expect more seasonal flooding due to increased rainfall or a higher proportion of rain concentrated in big storms [15]. Ironically, in countries such as India, more intense monsoon rains may mean more runoff, less water soaking slowly into the ground, and less groundwater available to survive the dry season [16].

And, as in our own Southwest, higher temperatures are reducing mountain snowpacks and melting glaciers that supply water for one sixth of the world's population [17].

Both the water scarcity and the flooding caused by climate change can compromise water quality. Flooding contaminates water sources. Where water is scarce, the reduced flow concentrates pollutants and increased temperatures help breed waterborne pathogens [18].

These varied climate effects add up to a major threat to water supplies in many parts of the world. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates that, by 2050, global warming may put one to two billion people at risk of increased water stress due to inadequate water supply or water quality [19].

As we invest in projects to bring clean water to poor communities, we are in part working to overcome the effects of global warming. We need to make sure that these projects are sustainable in a changing climate. We also need to remember that, because of this water-climate connection and the many other impacts of climate change, every step we take to save energy and reduce greenhouse emissions is a contribution to the well being of people in our own community and communities worldwide.

• Join in Rotary's work on water and sanitation. Link

• Join us to keep informed, help educate the public and inspire other Rotarians to take action.Download Application

• Contribute to one of these Rotary trust funds aimed at reducing and offsetting greenhouse gas emissions:
http://www.ireduceco2.info/
http://www.co2offsettrust.org/

• Start a climate education project in your community. Contact us for ideas and resources. See "Current Projects" and "Past Projects" for examples of programs that have worked for us.

• Click here for things you can do at home and in your business.

To Learn More:

• EPA page on climate change and water.Link

• Climate change, water and California:Link

Sources for this Article

Many of the citations below are from the 2007 Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Those citations use the following abbreviations:

WG1: Working Group 1
WG2: Working Group 2
TS: Technical Summary
SPM: Summary for Policy Makers
[1] Poor will suffer most:

IPCC AR4, WG2, SPM, p 7: "Poor communities can be especially vulnerable, in particular those concentrated in high-risk areas. They tend to have more limited adaptive capacities, and are more dependent on climate-sensitive resources such as local water and food supplies."

IPCC AR4, WG2, SPM, p 8: "New studies confirm that Africa is one of the most vulnerable continents to climate variability and change because of multiple stresses and low adaptive capacity. Some adaptation to current climate variability is taking place, however, this may be insufficient for future changes in climate. "

[2] Drought, flooding and waterborne disease:

Increased drought and flooding:
IPCC AR4, WG2, TS, p. 35: "Increased precipitation intensity and variability is projected to increase the risk of floods and droughts in many areas."

IPCC AR4, WG2, SPM, p. 7: Increases in the frequency of droughts and floods are projected to affect local crop production negatively, especially in subsistence sectors at low latitudes." Increased drought: IPCC AR4, WG1, TS, p. 42: "More intense and longer droughts have been observed over wider areas, particularly in the tropics and subtropics since the 1970s... Increased drying due to higher temperatures and decreased land precipitation have contributed to these changes." See also: IPCC AR4, TS, pp. 43, 52 (Table TS.4), 54, 64, 89.

Increased flooding: IPCC AR4, WG1, TS, p. 53: "Consistent with rising amounts of water vapour in the atmosphere, there are widespread increases in the numbers of heavy precipitation events and increased likelihood of flooding events in many land regions, even those where there has been a reduction in total precipitation." See also: IPCC AR4, WG2, TS, pp. 48-51, 59.

Increased waterborne disease

IPCC AR4, WG2, TS, p. 44 (Box TS.5): "Higher water temperatures, increased precipitation intensity and longer periods of low flows exacerbate many forms of water pollution, with impacts on ecosystems, human health, and water system reliability and operating costs."

IPCC AR4, WG2, TS, p. 50: "Increases in endemic morbidity and mortality due to diarrhoeal disease primarily associated with floods and droughts are expected in East, South and South-East Asia, due to projected changes in the hydrological cycle associated with global warming [10.4.5]. Increases in coastal water temperature would exacerbate the abundance and/or toxicity of cholera in South Asia."

[3] More intense tropical storms:

Note that projections are for more intense, but not necessarily more frequent hurricanes.

IPCC AR4, WG1, TS, pp. 41,42: "There is observational evidence for an increase of intense tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic since about 1970, correlated with increases in tropical SSTs... Estimates of the potential destructiveness of tropical cyclones suggest a substantial upward trend since the mid-1970s, with a trend towards longer lifetimes and greater intensity. Trends are also apparent in SST [sea-surface temperature], a variable known to influence tropical cyclone development."

IPCC AR4, WG1, TS, p. 52: See Table TS.4.

IPCC AR4, WG1, TS, pp. 73,74: "A synthesis of the model results to date indicates, for a warmer future climate, increased peak wind intensities and increased mean and peak precipitation intensities in future tropical cyclones, with the possibility of a decrease in the number of relatively weak hurricanes, and increased numbers of intense hurricanes. However, the total number of tropical cyclones globally is projected to decrease."

[4] Climate change and Darfur:

IPCC Assessment Report 4, Working Group 2, Summary for Policy Makers, p. 3: "In the Sahelian region of Africa, warmer and drier conditions have led to a reduced length of growing season with detrimental effects on crops.".

Christian Science Monitor online, November 6, 2006: Link

"...climate change is a present reality for many Africans. In Kenya, Sudan, Ethiopia, Somalia, and Chad, people are already seeing the repercussions - including war. The conflict between herders and farmers in Sudan's Darfur region, where farm and grazing lands are being lost to desert, may be a harbinger of the future conflicts."

"'The fighting in Chad, and the fighting in Darfur are the same,' says one North African diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity. 'The problem is resources, especially water. On one side you have herders. On the other side you have farmers. And with the spread of weapons in the region, it becomes very dangerous and hard to control.'"

The Real Roots of Darfur. Atlantic Monthly April 2007: Link

"The violence in Darfur is usually attributed to ethnic hatred. But global warming may be primarily to blame." "'This was not caused by people cutting trees or overgrazing,' says Columbia University's Alessandra Giannini, who led one of the analyses. The roots of the drying of Darfur, she and her colleagues had found, lay in changes to the global climate."

A Climate Culprit In Darfur." Op Ed by UN Secy. General Ban Ki Moon. Washington Post, June 16, 2007: Link "Amid the diverse social and political causes, the Darfur conflict began as an ecological crisis, arising at least in part from climate change."

Christian Science Monitor 27 July 2007: Climate change escalates Darfur crisis. Link Comments extensively on link between Darfur conflict and competition over increasingly scarce water.

[5] Conflict due to flooding and sea level rise in Bangladesh:

Christian Science Monitor, December 6, 2007, Global warming may heat up conflicts, too. Link

[6] Climate change and conflict, US generals and admirals report:

Associated Press, April 15, 2007. Top ex-military leaders call global warming major security risk: Link "Global warming poses a 'serious threat to America's national security' with terrorism worsening and the U.S. will likely be dragged into fights over water and other shortages, top retired military leaders warn in a new report... The report warned that in the next 30 to 40 years there will be wars over water, increased hunger instability from worsening disease and rising sea levels and global warming-induced refugees. 'The chaos that results can be an incubator of civil strife, genocide and the growth of terrorism," the 35-page report predicted.'

[7] Climate change and conflict, UNEP press release and report:

United Nations Environment Program, press release, 10 Dec 2007. Link

Links to original report cited in above article: "The report Climate Change as a Security Risk is available at www.wbgu.de under flagship reports. It is also available at Earthscan www.earthscan.co.uk graphics for download are available at www.unep.org "

[8] Millions of climate refugees:

Sachs JD, Scientific American Magazine, June 1, 2007 Link, Climate change refugees. Reviews findings from IPCC AR4, WG2. Does not give specific figure for projected number of refugees, but discusses several areas of the globe where hundreds of millions of people are potentially at risk for displacement due to climate change.

IPS News, May 23, 2007, Climate Change: U.N. Braces for New Breed of Refugees: Link "Gorlick also pointed out the different estimates of recent statistics on environmental refugees: 50 million more by the end of this decade (United Nations University); 150 million by 2050 (Oxford University); 50 million by 2060 in Africa alone (the U.N. Environment Programme in Nairobi) and; one billion displaced globally by 2050 (Christian Aid). "

Greenpeace website, accessed 1/5/08. Warming to cause 150 million environmental refugees by 2050. Link Cites 1993 article by Norman Myers of Oxford University (Total Environment Refugees Foreseen, N. Myers, BioScience, v. 43 (11), December 1993.) Discusses in detail how many refugees Myers thinks will come from each of several at-risk regions.

climate.org website, posted August 2007. Link Discusses climate refugee problem, giving references to other sources.

BBC, 24 January, 2000, West warned on climate refugees: Link "Speaking to the BBC Radio 4 environment programme Costing the Earth, Mrs. Choudhury said the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was predicting that 17.5% of Bangladesh's landmass could be lost beneath the waves...

Approximately 20 million people will become ecological refugees [from Bangladesh alone]." Reuters, January 18, 2007, Global warming to multiply world's refugee burden: Link "People displaced by global warming -- the Christian Aid agency has predicted there will be one billion by 2050 -- could dwarf the nearly 10 million refugees and almost 25 million internally displaced people already fleeing wars and oppression. "

Christian Science Monitor, June 21, 2007, Global warming may uproot millions. Link

[9] Climate change and hunger:

IPCC AR4, WG2, SPM, p. 6: "At lower latitudes, especially seasonally dry and tropical regions, crop productivity is projected to decrease for even small local temperature increases (1-2°C), which would increase risk of hunger." IPCC AR4, WG2, SPM, p 8: "Agricultural production, including access to food, in many African countries and regions is projected to be severely compromised by climate variability and change... This would further adversely affect food security and exacerbate malnutrition in the continent. In some countries, yields from rain-fed agriculture could be reduced by up to 50% by 2020."

[10] Magnitude of water crisis:

United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), "Water for people, water for life," United Nations World Water Development Report, 2003, p. 10. Link

[11] Many causes of water crisis:

United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), "Water: a shared responsibility," United Nations World Water Wevelopment Report 2," 2006, pp. 1, 12, 31, 44. Links

M. McCarthy, "Water scarcity could affect billions," The Independent (UK), March 5, 2003. Link

[12] Future water scarcity:

United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), "Water for people, water for life," United Nations World Water Development Report, 2003, p. 11. Link

[13] Rotary's 6000 clean water projects:

"Rotary clubs always pumped for World Water," press release, Rotary Intl., Mar. 20, 2008. Link

[14] Altered water distribution in warmer world:

IPCC AR4, WG1, TS, pp. 54, 73-76.
IPCC AR4, WG2, TS, p. 44.

[15] More seasonal flooding in many areas:

IPCC AR4, WG2, TS, pp. 48-51, 53, 59.

[16] More runoff, less groundwater replenishment:

IPCC AR4, WG2, TS, Box TS.6, p. 59.

[17] Melting glaciers and reduced snowpack threaten water supply for 1/6 of world:

IPCC AR4, WG2, TS, p. 35.

[18] Floods, droughts and waterborne disease:

IPCC AR4, WG2, TS, p. 44 (Box TS.5), p. 50.

[19] 1 to 2 billion at risk of increased water stress by 2050:

IPCC AR4, WG2, TS, p. 36.

Rotary & Climate Change

On this page:

Climate Change and the Four-Way Test

Climate Change and Disaster Relief

Climate Change, Peace and Security

Climate Change, Clean Water and Rotary

What You Can Do: Steps for Rotarians

Sources for this Article